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Digital Canadian Lenders Quarterly Report

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Canadian Lenders Report

Q1 2026

Data as of

January 2026

Version 3.0 · Released May 12, 2026

Confidential – For Recipient's Use Only.

Letter to Readers

WOWA

It has now been approximately one and a half years since we began publishing our lenders reports. What started as a report of fewer than 50 pages has grown to nearly 180 pages in its current form, reflecting our ongoing commitment to expanding scope and depth. Today, the report covers more than 100 Canadian lenders, including banks, credit unions, MFCs, and MIEs with assets or assets under management exceeding $0.5 billion.

What We Cover

The report covers the key aspects of the lending business, including loan and deposit portfolios, their composition, and how they have evolved over time. For loans, we examine market share, structure, risk exposure, and geographic distribution across Canadian lenders. We give particular attention to Real Estate Secured Lending (RESL), where we provide additional detail on lender rates, term popularity, insured versus uninsured lending, and portfolio structure. Together, these sections are designed to equip executives and policymakers in the financial sector with a data-driven perspective on current conditions and emerging trends.

Our Data

The report combines two complementary sources. The majority of our analysis draws from aggregated, publicly available data sourced from hundreds of institutions. We supplement this with proprietary insights derived from user activity on wowa.ca, which now receives approximately 500,000 unique visitors each month.

Our Process

Data accuracy and clear presentation are central to our mission. Each section undergoes a multi-step review: data collected by one team member is reviewed by a peer, and a third reviewer audits randomly selected data points, outputs, and visuals to ensure consistency and reliability.

Acknowledgements

This report would not be possible without an exceptional team. Most members have been with WOWA for over four years and bring deep expertise in both our data and the Canadian banking industry. My sincere thanks go to: Ali Nassimi, PhD; Jimmy Nguyen; Sanika Purohit; and Chris Wan.

Hanif Bayat

Hanif Bayat, PhD

Founder & CEO, WOWA Leads Inc.

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Executive Summary:

Canadian Lending Landscape

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the Canadian lending sector for the first quarter of 2026, with a primary focus on Real Estate Secured Lending (RESL) across banks and credit unions.

1. Market Scale and Growth in Loans

  • Global Loan Dominance: RBC and TD continue to lead the market, managing massive global loan portfolios of $1.06 trillion and $989 billion, respectively.
  • Canadian RESL Market Share: RBC holds the dominant position inside Canada with an 18.4% market share ($495.8 billion), followed closely by TD at 15.5% ($418.4 billion). Other major players include Scotiabank (12.5%), CIBC (10.9%), and BMO (8.0%).
  • High-Growth Institutions: National Bank saw an 18% annual growth in Canadian RESL, bolstered by its Canadian Western Bank acquisition. Desjardins followed, growing its portfolio by 10.5%.

2. Residential Mortgage Trends

  • Origination & Channels: Based on CMHC and Statistics Canada data, total Canadian residential mortgage originations reached $220.9 billion for the July-September 2025 period. Chartered banks remain the dominant force, holding a 70% market share ($154.5 billion). Our primary data indicates that 59.5% of borrowers finalized their mortgages directly with lenders, compared to 40.5% via brokers.
  • Variable Rate Shift: Based on Statistics Canada data, borrower preferences have shifted toward variable-rate mortgages, which surged to 45.1% of new bank originations by December 2025, up from 28.8% a year prior. However, our borrower-weighted primary data suggests fixed rates (71%) still dominate among individual survey respondents.
  • Insured vs. Uninsured: Uninsured residential mortgage balances reached $1.25 trillion at chartered banks, significantly outpacing the shrinking insured market ($376 billion). Across the Big 7, 79% of outstanding mortgage balances are now uninsured, up from 48% a decade ago.
  • Mortgage Default Insurers: Within the insured segment, CMHC commands 59% of the insurance-in-force market share, followed by Sagen (24.1%) and Canada Guaranty (16.9%). Mortgage default insurers remain highly profitable, with CMHC collecting $2.9 billion in premiums and fees in 2025 while paying out minimal claims.
  • Amortization & Renewals: A dominant 70% of Big 6 banks plus Desjardins' mortgages have amortizations of 25 years or less, and negative amortization has been nearly eliminated (0.01%). A wave of renewals is imminent, with 25.3% of outstanding residential mortgages scheduled to mature within one year.
  • LTV Ratios: The average Loan-to-Value (LTV) for uninsured RESL portfolios across the Big 6 stands at 57%.

3. The Non-Bank Sector: MFCs and MIEs

  • Mortgage Finance Companies (MFCs): These non-bank lenders fund mortgages via securitization and institutional investors rather than customer deposits. First National and MCAP together account for over $320B in mortgages under administration alone.
  • Mortgage Investment Entities (MIEs): MIEs are alternative lenders that pool investor capital for borrowers falling outside traditional bank criteria. MCAN leads with $8.27B in assets under management, followed by ACM Commercial Mortgage Fund at $4.8B.
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4. Regional Highlights

  • Ontario & BC: RBC maintains a commanding lead, holding $250.1 billion in Ontario (21.9% share) and $98.6 billion in BC (22.5% share). TD holds a strong second place in both markets.
  • Quebec: The Quebec market remains highly distinct; Desjardins (35.7% market share) and National Bank (15.2%) dominate the province, capturing a larger combined share than the Big Five banks combined.
  • Alberta & Prairies: RBC remains the volume leader in Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. However, National Bank posted massive decade-long growth rates (157% in AB, 195% in MB/SK) largely due to the CWB acquisition.
  • Atlantic Canada: RBC leads with a 30.1% market share ($24.1 billion). Scotiabank, despite its historic roots in the region, is the only major lender to record a decade-long decline (-0.6%) in its Atlantic RESL portfolio.

5. Risk Factors and Credit Quality

  • Credit Losses (PCL & Net Write-offs): Provision for Credit Losses (PCLs) on residential mortgages rose to $199 million across the Big 6 in Q1 2026. Scotiabank continues to account for an outsized share, representing $27 million of the $38 million total Big 6 residential mortgage net write-offs. Total residential mortgage Allowance for Credit Losses (ACLs) represent just a small fraction of the Big 6's total ACL ($3.7 billion out of over $37.6 billion).
  • Delinquency Rates: The national mortgage delinquency rate remains historically low at 0.24% as of Q4 2025. In the insured segment, delinquency rates are incredibly well-contained, recorded at 0.32% for CMHC and 0.21% for Sagen in December 2025.

6. Macroeconomic Outlook and Rate Path

  • Growth Outlook: 2026 is expected to be a period of below-potential economic growth, limiting income growth and constraining household flexibility during the renewal cycle.
  • Policy Rates: The Bank of Canada policy rate is expected to stabilize near 2.25% through most of 2026.
  • Bond Yields: 5-year Government of Canada bond yields are projected to average 3.08% by March 2027, reaching ~3.18% by year-end. While below 2023 peaks, these yields will still cause significant "payment shock" for borrowers renewing from 2020/2021 record-low rates.
  • Labour Market: Unemployment should remain elevated near 6.5% through 2026. However, major banks forecast a gradual decline to 6.0% by the end of 2027, pointing to an eventual easing of credit stress.
  • Housing: Forecasts indicate continued home price weakness in 2026, followed by a gradual recovery in 2027. Downside risks are heavily concentrated in high-priced urban markets in Ontario and B.C., where the condo segment faces ongoing oversupply and investor liquidation pressures.

Terminology Note

  • Big 5: RBC, TD, Scotiabank, BMO, CIBC
  • Big 6: Big 5 + National Bank
  • Big 7: Big 6 + Desjardins

The grouping referenced varies by data availability. Credit risk metrics (PCL, ACL, net write-offs) use Big 6 data; market share analysis typically includes all Big 7 institutions.

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